Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

中国邮路问题的0-1规划解法

在用“奇偶点图上作业法”求解“中国邮路问题”时,需检查图中的每一个回路.当图中回路较多时,检查不便且易出错.针对此,本文建立了求解“中国邮路问题”的0-1规划模型,并给出了算例。     

钢-混凝土连续组合梁桥的理论分析和试验研究

根据完全剪力连接的连续组合梁桥的构造特点及各部分受力机理,做出合理假设,提出分层平面框架计算模型该计算模型用于沈阳市东西快速干道工程某段连续组合梁桥,计算值与静载试验实测值非常接近,证明了本计算模型用于钢-混凝土连续组合梁桥正确实用的.     

完善关联交易的法律对策

伴随我国证券市场的发展,产生了大量侵害中小投资者及债权人利益的违法事件,其最主要原因是过于频繁、数额巨大的关联交易。拟从关联交易的利弊分析,提出规范关联交易的对策。     

亚双曲型广义Cartan矩阵的分类

本文解决了一类非双曲型的不定型（亚双曲型）广义Ｃａｒｔａｎ矩阵的分类问题．证明了亚双曲型矩阵的阶数范围，并做出了阶数为３，５，６的亚双曲型广义Ｃａｒｔａｎ矩阵的Ｄｙｎｋｉｎ图．     

两圆锥相接平面的定位计算及其应用

用自动绘图机绘制接口为平面曲线的两圆锥表面展开图,先要准确计算接口平面的位置,再按接口展开的曲线方程,编制两圆锥相交后的表面展开的绘图程序。本文探讨了不同锥度的两圆锥相接平面的定位计算,得出了两圆锥相接平面的定位计算公式。最后,应用本文所推导的公式,简化和论证了有关圆锥相接的若干作图方法。     

关于E~(n+1)中全臍超曲面和极小超曲面的一个注记

本文利用改进了的一般极大值原理,给出了n+1维欧氏空间E~(n+1)中利齐曲率下方有界的完备连通超曲面为全脐超曲面或极小超曲面的一个充要条件。     

试论词义术语化流程中的转换机制及语义特征

本文从分析科技术语的基本特点入手,深入讨论了术语体系中兼容语词的语义特征及其转换机制。从而为揭示词义术语化流程的基本规律提供了重要的依据。     

Error rates in quadratic discrimination with constraints on the covariance matrices

In multivariate discrimination of several normal populations, the optimal classification procedure is based on quadratic discriminant functions. We compare expected error rates of the quadratic classification procedure if the covariance matrices are estimated under the following four models: (i) arbitrary covariance matrices, (ii) common principal components, (iii) proportional covariance matrices, and (iv) identical covariance matrices. Using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate expected error rates, we study the performance of the four discrimination procedures for five different parameter setups corresponding to standard situations that have been used in the literature. The procedures are examined for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 60, and for two to four groups. Our results quantify the extent to which a parsimonious method reduces error rates, and demonstrate that choosing a simple method of discrimination is often beneficial even if the underlying model assumptions are wrong.The authors wish to thank the editor and three referees for their helpful comments on the first draft of this article. M. J. Schmid supported by grants no. 2.724-0.85 and 2.038-0.86 of the Swiss National Science Foundation.     

Hamilton图的代数刻划

运用矩阵方法,给出了连通图是Ｈａｍｉｌｔｏｎ图的一个代数刻划